First Read from NBC News: GOP’s internal divides on display – Wednesday, 21 August 2013

GOP’s internal divides on display… The Tea Party’s limits… The GOP establishment strikes back… Syria’s back in the news… McAuliffe’s good week (so far)… And everything you wanted to know about the Sept. 10 recalls in Colorado, but were afraid to ask.

*** GOP’s internal divides on display: During these dog days of summer, it’s worth noting that both political parties are struggling right now. For Democrats, President Obama’s poll numbers have dipped; they’ve been unable to stop the GOP’s aggressive legislative agenda at the state level (see Texas and North Carolina); the Republican Party is outraising them; and they are bracing for a very challenging midterm season in 2014. But right now, the Democrats are a rock of stability compared with the Republican Party. Indeed, this summer has highlighted both the Tea Party’s re-emergence inside the GOP, as well as the HUGE divides within the party. Think immigration reform, the “defund Obamacare” movement, John Boehner’s struggles to corral his GOP colleagues, Mitch McConnell’s primary challenge. Nine months after the GOP’s losses in the 2012 election, there’s still a clear fight going on over the heart and soul of the Republican Party. And this establishment-vs.-non-establishment fight will play out over the next couple of years.

J. Scott Applewhite / AP file photo

House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio, flanked by House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Va., right, and Rep. Luke Messer, R-Ind.

*** The Tea Party’s limits: But we’ve also seen reminders over the last 24 to 48 hours about the Tea Party’s limits within the GOP. For instance, the movement to defund Obamacare has gone nowhere, even as Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has exhorted his colleagues not to blink in the fight. What’s more, Cruz decided to renounce his Canadian citizenship after it was revealed he has dual citizenship. Tea Partier Joe Carr, who’s challenging Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN), misspelled the word “Senate” on his website. And McConnell released a new ad highlighting that primary opponent Matt Bevin had once incorrectly suggested he graduated from MIT (when he didn’t). As some establishment Republicans have gleefully noted to many over the last few days, it hasn’t been the best of times for the Tea Party. That said, the Tea Party remains a force inside the GOP (see the 2010 and 2012 elections, as well as the current legislative standoffs). But they’re also not unbeatable juggernauts.

*** The GOP establishment strikes back: Unlike 2011-2012, when the GOP tried to appease (or co-opt) the Tea Party movement, we’ve also seen signs that the Republican Party establishment is fighting back. Lamar Alexander — who now has a primary challenge as mentioned above — penned an extraordinary op-ed defending his work in the Senate, after some Republicans asked him to retire due to his record of compromising with Democrats. His response: “Well, I learned to count in Maryville City Schools. So I know that if you only have 45 votes and you need 60 senators to get something important done like balancing the budget and fixing the debt, then you have to work with other people — that is, IF you really care about solving the problem, IF you really want to get a result, instead of just making a speech. That’s why I believe that one good way to put our country on the right track is to send to Washington a conservative, problem-solving former governor who worked well with others to get the results that put our state on the right track.” In addition, the chairman of the Polk County, IA GOP resigned from his position and switched his party registration to independent, arguing that the party “has become too conservative and is condoning ‘hateful’ rhetoric,” the Des Moines Register writes. And you could even add a prominent Virginia Republican consultant endorsing Terry McAuliffe over Ken Cuccinelli as parts of the GOP establishment trying to strike back against a conservative base that these folks fear has alienated too many swing voters.

*** Does the fight last through 2014 – or 2016? For the last three years, this fight between the establishment/money wing of the GOP and the Tea Party has taken place largely BEHIND the scenes, as the establishment feared making their fight public. It’s clear now, that many believe they should fight back publicly. This can be healthy for the GOP if this fight is resolved by the end of 2014; it becomes problematic if it carries on into 2016 when more of the country is watching.

*** Syria’s back in the news: Given all the unrest coming out of Egypt, the last thing the Obama White House wants right now is ANOTHER tricky situation in the Middle East. But it looks like it got it. The AP: “Syrian regime forces fired intense artillery and rocket barrages Wednesday on the eastern suburbs of Damascus amid a fierce government offensive in what two pro-opposition groups claimed was a ‘poisonous gas’ attack that killed at least 100 people, including many children.” The Assad regime has denied that it used chemical weapons, but the news is a reminder of the ongoing conflict in Syria — as well as the fact that Obama’s red line on the use of chemical weapons has already been crossed once before. Gayle Tzemach Lemmon writes about the administration’s hesitancy to get more involved in Syria. Our take: The administration looks like it’s paralyzed because there are no good options. (After all, helping the rebels would help the jihadists fighting against Assad.) In Egypt, you have the same issue: While the Egyptian military is not upholding American democratic ideals, it’s not like the administration is comfortable coming across as pro-Muslim Brotherhood. Perhaps the appearance of the president’s foreign policy paralysis is pragmatic paralysis, but it’s paralysis nonetheless. The one thing Obama has going for him on both these issues: The country has no interest in getting involved in any foreign entanglements, and the GOP isn’t rushing to make them a political issue.

*** McAuliffe’s good week (so far): After some struggles and bad press, Terry McAuliffe needed a good week — and it looks he got it. Yesterday, Boyd Marcus, a former chief of staff to GOP Gov. Jim Gilmore and an adviser to current GOP Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, endorsed the Democratic gubernatorial candidate. “I’ve never before supported any Democrat, but this election Terry is the clear choice for mainstream conservatives,” Marcus said in a statement released by the McAuliffe campaign, per NBC’s Mike O’Brien. “I am excited to work with him to grow the already-long list of prominent Republican leaders who are supporting his campaign. And today, a new Quinnipiac poll shows McAuliffe leading Republican Ken Cuccinelli by six points among likely voters, 48%-42%. The poll was conducted August 14-19 — after a series of negative stories about McAuliffe’s GreenTech work. We’ll be curious to see if Cuccinelli supporters end up disputing these results, or if they are seeing the same thing. And if they are, it has to be quite startling considering how bad things have been in the media for McAuliffe. It could be a sign that Gov. Bob McDonnell’s problems are a bigger drag on Cuccinelli than even they thought they would be.

*** Total Recall: Colorado edition: It was just a year ago that Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker was able to survive an attempt to recall him from office. And it was two years ago when other recall races against GOP legislators rocked the state. Now, the shoe’s on the other foot for Democrats in Colorado. After state Democrats pushed through gun restrictions, the National Rifle Association and state Republicans pushed to recall four Democrats. They gathered enough signatures to get two on the ballot — state Senate President John Morse, a former police chief from Fountain (just south of Colorado Springs), and Angela Giron (pronounced hee-ROHN) of Pueblo. After a district court judge validated those petitions, Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper set the date for the state’s first-ever recalls for Sept. 10. The races won’t affect control of the state legislature – Democrats control the state Senate 20-15, so even if Republicans pick up both seats, they would be one short of control. But the race has become about more than guns and has national implications. Here’s everything you need to know about the elections and why they matter:

– Meet the candidates: In Colorado Springs, State Sen. President John Morse, who’s term limited and won’t be in office in 2014 regardless of the recall outcome faces off against Bernie Herpin, a former Colorado Springs city councilman. In Pueblo, Giron is in her first term. Running against her is George Rivera, a retired deputy police chief from Pueblo.

– How the election will work: The language is still being finalized, but it is a two-step ballot that asks: (1) Should the incumbent be recalled? And then (2) Who would you pick to replace them?

– About more than guns: The race has become about much more than guns with each side warning that the other will push a radical agenda. Republicans say they are fed up with Democratic control, including pushing a bill that, they say, would increase energy prices for rural Coloradans. Democrats, on the other hand, have pointed out the two Republican candidates’ past support for the failed 2010 and 2012 Personhood Amendments. Ads are running from a Democratic-aligned group accusing the GOP candidates of being in favor of bans on birth control and supporting police to investigate miscarriages.

– Warning shot at Democrats: Democrats are also concerned that Republicans and the NRA, in particular, are using these elections to fire a warning shot at Democrats around the country. The message: Don’t go through with whatever legislation you were thinking about, because if you do, we’ll come after you. They feel like there’s more at stake than just for these two races 45 miles apart from each other. Democrats feel this way, especially considering that Morse is term-limited and will be out of office in 2014, and Giron is up for reelection next year.

– No vote-by-mail: There won’t be vote-by-mail, which has become popular in Colorado. This can pose big problems for voters, because it’s the first time in about 20 years that all Coloradans will have to physically go to the polls. The state Supreme Court ruled Monday, in a case brought by libertarians, that Colorado won’t be all vote-by-mail this time due to a 1912 law meant to help third-party candidates get on the ballot. That will mean higher cost, lower turnout, and much bigger-than-anticipated GOTV efforts. That could mean the side with the most passion has an inside track, but neither side is sure who benefits at this point with both calling the races “difficult.”

– Higher cost than expected: Speaking of cost, the price tag will be close to $500,000, higher than first expected. The Pueblo County Clerk told First Read that his county is at $246,000 with the cost likely to go up with ballots printing around Labor Day and with polling place costs. (Early voting begins Sept. 5.) The El Paso County Clerk’s office says they are up to $190,000 with projected costs being around $200,000.

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*** Wednesday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: NBC’s Richard Engel with the latest on allegations of chemical weapon use in Syria and Egypt’s unrest… NBC’s Kasie Hunt with more on Cruz’s confab last night… a Deep Dive into how pro sports teams are using online tactics that the Obama campaign rode to victory with Blue State Digital’s Joe Rospars… Plus former Gov. George Pataki (R-NY), Salon.com’s Joan Walsh and NY1’s Errol Louis join the Gaggle.

*** Wednesday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts interviews MSNBC Policy Analyst Ezra Klein and Former GOP strategist Clint Murphy on the GOP obsession with Obamacare.   Brady Campaign President Dan Gross will discuss a renewed push on gun control in the wake of new shootings.  Former San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders will talk about pressure on Bob Filner to step down.  Think Progress Editor-in-Chief Judd Legum and Talking Points Memo Reporter Sahil Kapur will discuss a new report that NSA programs reach 75% of internet users.  And psychologist Jeff Gardere will talk about Dr. Phil’s show under fire after a controversial tweet.

*** Wednesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: Chris and Kathleen Matthews, filling in for Andrea Mitchell, interview former Rep. Jane Harman, Rep. Luis Guitierrez, Voto Latino’s Maria Teresa Kumar, The Atlantic’s Steven Clemons, The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, NBC’s Ayman Mohyeldin and Jim Miklaszewski and “Mr. Speaker” Director Dimitri Logothetis.

*** Wednesday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Rep. Eliot Engel, Michele Sigona on the latest on the Oklahoma college athlete murdered Firedog Lake’s Jane Hamsher on Bradley Manning sentencing, Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins and District Attorney Craig Watkins on Dallas county joining Fed lawsut against TX voter id law, and Martin Luther King Jr. III  on MLK 50 years later.

The New York Times: “President Obama will offer a series of proposals this week aimed at making college more affordable by reshaping the way Americans pay for higher education, he said in an e-mail to supporters on Tuesday. In the message, Mr. Obama promised to take action to confront the financial challenges facing an increasing number of students and their families. The average tuition at four-year colleges has tripled over the past three decades, and students who take out loans are left, on average, with $26,000 in debt, he said.”

A survey finds that more young Republicans are signing up for the parents’ health plans than Democrats… NBCNews.com: “Obamacare may have become a partisan issue, but more Republicans than Democrats have signed up for one of its most popular provisions, according to a survey published Wednesday. The survey also pokes holes in the idea that most 20-somethings act like ‘Young Invincibles’ who believe they don’t need health insurance. A team at the Commonwealth Fund, which strongly supports healthcare reform, looked at one of the main target groups of the 2010 Affordable Care Act – young adults who have been going without health insurance.” More: “They found that by last March, 63 percent of young adults identifying as Republicans had enrolled in a parent’s health plan in the last 12 months, compared to 45 percent of those who considered themselves Democrats.”

“Aiming to boost momentum for comprehensive immigration reform as Congress continues its five-week summer recess, evangelical leaders who support the reform effort are again taking to the airwaves – to the tune of $400,000,” NBC’s Carrie Dann writes. “The Evangelical Immigration Table, a coalition of faith groups, announced Tuesday that it will air pro-immigration reform ads on Christian and talk radio in 56 congressional districts and 14 states nationwide.”

The Washington Post’s Greg Sargent: “How many GOP-held House districts vulnerable to changing sides have large enough Latino populations to ensure that high Latino turnout in 2014 could swing the outcome? As it turns out, not too many. A grand total of eight, and that’s if you include multiple races that Democrats are all but certainly not going to win. Given that Dems need to flip 17 seats to take back the House — and will be defending a host of Dem-held seats against GOP challenges at the same time — this is less than encouraging.”

NBC’s Kasie Hunt on last night’s Ted Cruz/Heritage Action town hall in Dallas: “Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s message to Republican lawmakers who won’t support defunding ‘Obamacare’ at the risk of shutting down the government? ‘Don’t blink.’ And he downplayed the effects of a possible shutdown, telling a Dallas crowd on Tuesday evening that the last time the government experienced “a temporary suspension of non-essential federal government spending,” the military kept functioning and Social Security checks were distributed.”

The RNC outraised the DNC in July ($5.9 million to $3.9 million), has more cash on hand ($12.3 million to $4.1 million) and has no debt compared to the DNC which is carrying $18.5 million in debt.

CALIFORNIA: San Diego Mayor Bob “Filner’s resignation was on the table as another full day of mediated talks went on inside a downtown office building, sources told U-T San Diego. City Attorney Jan Goldsmith appeared outside the building shortly after 5 p.m. to confirm Tuesday’s session had ended. ‘Mediation can be a long process — we are in that process,’ said Goldsmith, adding that all parties were asked by the mediator not to discuss specifics,” the San Diego Union Tribune writes.

NBC’s Jessica Taylor: “House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy has been feeling the pressure from union and liberal groups in the immigration debate, and on Wednesday a conservative group is coming to his aid. American Action Network is set to launch a $65,000 broadcast, cable and digital ad campaign to boost the California Republican, who’s been the target of other both pro- and anti-immigration groups during the August recess.”

IOWA: Some conservatives in the state think Gov. Terry Branstad’s (R) too moderate.

KENTUCKY: EMILY’s List is endorsing Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes in her bid against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. In a statement, EMILY’s List President Stephanie Schriock called Grimes an ‘energetic rising star,’” The Hill reports. “‘She is an incredible leader who has fought for women and families by protecting victims of domestic violence, supporting state and local businesses, championing voting rights, and advocating for military personnel.’”

AP: “McConnell unleashed another attack against his Republican primary challenger Tuesday, releasing a TV ad accusing Matt Bevin of embellishing his educational credentials. The political newcomer replied that the five-term incumbent was stooping to a new low in hopes of hanging onto his job…Bevin’s campaign said that from 2006 to 2008, he attended the EO/MIT entrepreneurial master’s program, an annual four-day seminar held at MIT but put on by Entrepreneurs’ Organization, a network of business owners. The program is not affiliated with MIT, said Kate Anderson with MIT’s Sloan School of Management.”

MICHIGAN: Roll Call: “Rep. Candice S. Miller, R-Mich., endorsed former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land’s bid for Senate on Tuesday, calling the GOP hopeful ‘the type of woman we need to put forward more often in the Republican Party.’”

NEW YORK: Christine Quinn’s taking the gloves off to newly minted mayoral frontrunner Bill de Blasio. Quinn, who has showed no qualms in going after her fellow Democrats – she went hard after Bill Thompson’s record when he was creeping up – is up with a web video painting de Blasio as a flip-flopper on term limits. Her campaign says she will roll out more flip flops daily.

Here come the attacks on de Blasio… The Daily News: “A convicted felon arranged two fund-raisers for mayoral contender Bill de Blasio at what appears to be improper discount rates.” The man was the former treasurer of NBC and “served  a year in federal prison for skimming $1.3 million” from the company, the Daily News writes.

Meanwhile, Quinn says it might be OK for middle schoolers to get birth control

And de Blasio’s out with yet another ad featuring his biracial son.

Bill Thompson’s upset that de Blasio calls himself the only candidate who will end stop and frisk. Thompson’s out with an ad talking about his public-school teacher mother, but The Daily News takes this shot at the candidate endorsed by the teacher’s union: “Not mentioned by Thompson, a former president of the dismantled Board of Education, is that his own children have attended private school.”

One of the women who sexted with Anthony Weiner is now in a pornographic movie lampooning Weiner.

NORTH CAROLINA: Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx won’t run for Senate next year, Roll Call reports. “For months, Republican operatives mentioned Foxx as a potential candidate to challenge Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan — although it was somewhat unclear just how serious the five-term Republican was about a statewide race.”

SOUTH CAROLINA: The State: “Is Jim DeMint targeting U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham for defeat in 2014? The former U.S. senator from Greenville, who resigned on New Year’s Day to lead a conservative Washington-based think tank, and fellow Republican Graham occasionally voted against each other while in the Senate. But they rarely criticized each other in public. But Tuesday, the Senate Conservatives Fund – the political action committee that DeMint founded in 2008 – released a radio ad in South Carolina criticizing Graham for recently saying that voting to defund the Affordable Care Act was “a bridge too far.”

And the Columbia State also notes that it’s Graham, not the appointed Sen. Tim Scott, who’s attracting primary opponents in 2014.

TENNESSEE: “Sen. Lamar Alexander’s efforts to ward off a primary challenge from the right fell short Tuesday with Tennessee state Rep. Joe Carr’s announcement that he will mount a tea party challenge for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate,” AP writes.

Carr lost his top strategist, former state GOP Chairman Chip Saltsman, after switching to the U.S. Senate race from a primary against Rep. Scott DesJarlais. Saltsman, in a letter: “I signed up to help you run for Congress, not the Senate….It is because of Lamar Alexander that people like you have the honor of serving in the majority of the state legislature…I am honored to support Lamar Alexander for re-election.”

And it wasn’t a good start out of the gate for Carr, who misspelled ”Sentate” on his campaign logo.

NBC’s Jessica Taylor, a Tennessee native, with her take: Carr getting in is slightly significant, but as his rollout showed, he’s hardly a heavyweight candidate against someone who’s larger than life in Tennessee politics. It’s not just the misspelling on his website — if a candidate is launching a serious statewide primary challenge, he doesn’t go on Nashville talk radio to do it. He has no campaign infrastructure; he lost his chief strategist and comptroller. And he already hadn’t been a strong fundraiser against the embattled Rep. Scott DesJarlais. Carr likely won’t’ be the only candidate getting in, either. Both Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett and former Williamson County GOP Chair Kevin Kookogey could be looking, too. Kookogey has ties to Heritage. In a state without a runoff, the more candidates, the better for Alexander. Who does Carr’s move actually help or hurt the most? Say hello to Rep. Jim Tracy. It gives him a clear shot against DesJarlais, who no Republicans in Washington will be sad to see go or get rid of his salacious past and bad headlines.

Alexander addressed the criticism head-on, with an op-ed in the Tennessean. “Washington needs more, not fewer, conservatives who know how to govern. Governing means listening, standing up for what you believe in and solving problems to get a result. I did that as governor. I’m doing that as senator. I’m proud of that record.”

VIRGINIA: Terry McAuliffe (D) leads Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli 48%-42% among likely voters in a new Quinnipiac poll. It’s Quinnipiac’s first poll in this race using a likely voter model. There’s a big gender gap with McAuliffe leading 50%-38% with women but the candidates essentially tied with men. Voters also think Cuccinelli does not have an “understanding of the problems of people like you” by a 51%-37% margin. McAuliffe is a net-negative on the question, but by a narrower 38% understands/42% does not understand margin. Cuccinelli has a worse fav/unfav than McAuliffe. Cuccinelli is underwater at 35%/41%. McAuliffe is slightly positive at 34%/33%, meaning lots of voters are still undecided about how they feel about him.

AP: “Boyd Marcus, a veteran Republican political consultant whose client list has included U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and former Gov. Jim Gilmore, is endorsing Democrat Terry R. McAuliffe and advising his campaign against GOP nominee Ken Cuccinelli in Virginia’s neck-and-neck race for governor.”