First Read from NBC News : Sizing up the Bluegrass Battle Tuesday, 02 July 2013

Sizing up the Bluegrass Battle… McConnell now will have to keep his eye on Kentucky instead of Washington… Focusing on the South in 2014… Will “Power Africa” be a lasting legacy for Obama?… What’s taking place in North Carolina has become the best political story few are talking about… Don’t forget about the recalls in Colorado… And Gabby Giffords continues on her tour to reduce gun violence.

*** Sizing up the Bluegrass Battle: Well, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell now has a Democratic challenger, with Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes’ announcement on Monday that she will run for the GOP leader’s Senate seat. And there are two forces at play that will make McConnell the favorite but that will also probably keep the race close. The first force: Kentucky is an overwhelmingly GOP-leaning state in federal contests, especially in the Obama Era. After all, President Obama won just 38% of the vote in the state last year, and Republicans are already tying Obama to Grimes. “Kentuckians have absolutely no reason to send Alison Lundergan Grimes to Washington to help pass the policies of a president whom they adamantly oppose,” the National Republican Senatorial Committee said in a statement yesterday. And a pro-McConnell Super PAC has already been airing a TV ad making the same point. “Alison Grimes would stand with Obama, and that’s bad news for us.” (This is the exact opposite of what we saw in that Massachusetts Senate race, where Democrats hit Gabriel Gomez for not being close enough to Obama and the Democrats.) But here’s the second force at play: With just one exception (in 2002), McConnell has never won more than 55% in his Senate races in Kentucky. So bet on McConnell — but also bet that the race is closer than you think.

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Senate Minority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

*** McConnell will have to keep his eye on Kentucky instead of Washington: Given how close the race could be, perhaps the biggest result of Grimes’ decision to run is that McConnell will have to keep his eye on Kentucky over the next year and a half — rather than keep his eye on the legislative activity in the Senate. Had Grimes NOT run (especially after Ashley Judd’s decision to pass on the race), Democrats would have been without a top-tier challenger, and that would have allowed McConnell to fully concentrate on Washington. Now he’s got to concentrate on Grimes and Kentucky. But the best news for McConnell right now: He doesn’t have a GOP primary challenge, and that’s very significant.

*** Focusing on the South in 2014: We have a final point to make about the McConnell-vs.-Grimes race: Much of the Senate action in 2014 will be taking place in the South — or the states bordering it. Think Arkansas. Louisiana. North Carolina. West Virginia. Now Kentucky. And this is one of the reasons why Republicans have such a favorable map in 2014. But here’s the rub: Republicans HAVE to run the table in the South (as well as in Alaska and South Dakota) to be able to pick up the six seats they need to take control of the Senate. There’s no margin for error, unless the GOP can put Iowa and Montana in serious play.

*** Will “Power Africa” be a lasting legacy for Obama? A continent away, President Obama has departed Tanzania to head back to the United States — after laying a wreath with George W. Bush at a memorial honoring those killed at a 1998 bombing at the U.S. embassy there, and after making remarks at a power plant. The success of Obama’s Africa trip won’t really be known for years. The centerpiece program Obama introduced, Power Africa, is a tangible idea that will be easy to track. If the lights are on in rural Africa in the next decade, Obama has his positive legacy. This is similar to Bush’s Africa legacy: It hasn’t been until the last few years (after Bush left office) that it’s been clear just how successful the PEPFAR program has been in helping this continent get control of the AIDS/HIV epidemic.

*** Sensitive to criticism, sensitive to focus on non-Africa matters: But also on this trip, there was something else just under the surface that was clearly detectable for longtime Obama watchers: The president is sensitive to the criticism that he hasn’t been as active publicly in Africa as Bush. Whenever he had the chance, Obama tried to deal with the veiled critique — coming from Africans — that he hasn’t been a strong partner with the continent. The president’s sensitivity carried over with the staff, as there were more than a few minor dust-ups between the traveling press and the traveling White House staff. They appeared frustrated that the coverage of this trip was overshadowed by so many outside forces like Mandela’s health or Edward Snowden. (An example: Obama came to chat with reporters on the plane, on the record, about Africa. But he was much less interested in talking when the conversation turned to Mandela.) Bottom line: The president wants a positive Africa legacy, and he knows he’s perceived to be late to the game (his original intent was to travel to Africa in 2011, but the budget fights changed those plans). So it makes him and the press staff extra sensitive to everything about this trip.

*** Carolina in my mind: Turning back to domestic politics… Writing for the Atlantic, David Graham makes a good argument that the best — and most important — political story that no one has probably heard about is taking place in North Carolina. In fact, Graham says that North Carolina has become the new Wisconsin. “Unlike the Madison contretemps, which centered around one major issue — Gov. Scott Walker’s drive to strip public employees of collective-bargaining rights, and protestors push to stop him — the battle in North Carolina is more of a multifront war featuring a large number of skirmishes.” Those skirmishes include fights over unemployment benefits, taxes, education, and voting laws. Graham also observes, “Central to the push is Art Pope, a wealthy businessman and political benefactor who is sometimes described as North Carolina’s answer to the Koch brothers, and whom McCrory appointed as state budget director. Pope and his associates spent $2.2 million in state races in the 2010 cycle alone, Jane Mayer reported in 2011.”

*** Total Recall: Speaking of comparisons to Wisconsin and underreported stories, don’t forget that this year could feature two recall races in Colorado — over the gun-control legislation the state enacted. And Democrats are the target this time. As the Washington Times wrote last week, “A second Colorado recall drive fueled by a backlash against the state’s newly passed gun-control laws cleared its first hurdle Monday after the petition signatures were deemed sufficient to proceed. Colorado Secretary of State Scott Gessler announced that proponents had submitted 12,648 valid signatures, or 1,363 more than the 11,285 signatures needed to force a recall election of Democratic state Sen. Angela Giron… The Giron effort represents the second Colorado recall to move forward this month. Last week, Mr. Gessler validated signatures in the drive to recall Senate President John Morse, a Colorado Springs Democrat.”

*** Giffords and Kelly continue on their tour: Lastly, former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ) and her husband Mark Kelly continue on their “Rights and Responsibilities Tour” to promote universal background checks. Today’s stop: Alaska (where the state’s Democratic senator, Mark Begich, voted against background checks). Giffords pens an op-ed in USA Today, writing: “We own guns, we use them and we treat them with great care. But when children are gunned down in their classrooms, when families are slaughtered at a movie theater, when a little girl dreaming of running for office is shot dead standing next to me in a grocery store parking lot, we have to admit what we’re doing is not enough. We’ve all got to do more to reduce gun violence.”

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*** Tuesday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: Guests include Legal Analyst Lisa Bloom for live coverage of the Zimmerman trial.

*** Tuesday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: Joining Thomas today for continuing coverage of the George Zimmerman Trial:  MSNBC Legal Analyst Lisa Bloom and attorney Paul Henderson.  Thomas will also have reports on the protests in Egypt, President Obama’s Africa trip and the mourning of 19 firefighters killed in Arizona.

*** Tuesday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Guests include liberal economist Jared Bernstien, Salon’s Joan Walsh, Slate’s Matthew Yglesias, CNBC’s John Harwood, and NARAL’s Ilyse Hogue. Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Il, Financial Services Cmte. Member (@LuisGutierrez) [Chicago bureau]

*** Tuesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Peter Alexander, filling in for Andrea Mitchell, interviews MSNBC Legal Analyst Lisa Bloom, NBC’s Craig Melvin, Ayman Mohyeldin, Jim Maceda and Gabe Guitierrez, the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, USA Today’s Yamiche Alcindor and New Yorker contributor Jelani Cobb.

Tom Curry: “The laying of a wreath at the American embassy in Dar es Salaam Tuesday symbolized a big theme of both the Barack Obama and George W Bush administrations: The war against al Qaeda. … in dealing with al Qaeda, Obama hasn’t turned out to be exactly what his supporters expected in 2008. Obama expanded Bush’s strategy of using unmanned drones to kill suspected terrorists in Yemen, Somalia and Pakistan.”

More: “At a meeting earlier Tuesday, Laura Bush shared a platform with Michelle Obama and spoke of the overriding need for freedom – freedom not only from tyranny but also in education, economics and other areas.”

The New York Times: “Two presidents who spent much of their time in office fighting terror stood solemnly next to each other Tuesday morning as a United States marine placed a wreath to mark the memory of those killed here by a terrorist bomb 15 years ago.”

“President Barack Obama on Monday courted African business leaders and announced new trade initiatives to open up East Africa’s markets to American businesses, as he sought to counter the rise of Chinese economic influence in the growing continent,” the AP writes. “The United States, he declared, wants to ‘step up our game’ in a region that is home to six of the world’s 10 fastest growing economies. The president was welcomed in Tanzania by the largest crowds of his weeklong trip to the continent where his family ties run deep. Thousands of people lined the streets as his motorcade sped through this city on the shores of the Indian Ocean, some wearing shirts and traditional khanga wraps bearing Obama’s image. The oceanfront road leading to the Tanzanian president’s residence had been permanently changed to ‘Barack Obama Drive’ in honor of the visit.”

The French and Germans are not happy with U.S. surveillance of their leaders. Obama dismissed the concerns, but didn’t deny the U.S. does it, saying everybody gathers “intelligence.”

USA Today: “Obama’s three-day stint in South Africa was overshadowed by protests, which saw South African police shoot rubber bullets into a crowd of hundreds of students prior to his speech at the University of Johannesburg.”

Obama called Morsi in Egypt.

Obama was kicking around a “soccket ball,” a ball that after being played with generates enough energy to charge a phone or a light. It can power an LED lamp for 72 hours.

AP: “The SOCCKET ball, invented by two female Harvard graduates, is among the featured devices President Barack Obama will see on exhibit during a presentation at a Tanzanian power plant Tuesday.”

And here’s Obama dancing in Tanzania.

CNBC looks at which student loans are affected and how.

Gannett: “Republican leaders in the U.S. House plan to take up the farm bill again this month, but they are still reviewing what the legislation should look like to ensure they have the votes they need to pass it, Rep. Steve King said in an interview Monday.”

USA Today: “Freshman Rep. Steven Horsford, D-Nev., successfully underwent heart surgery, his office announced Monday. The 40-year-old lawmaker, who represents a new district in northern Las Vegas and central Nevada, was advised during his physical that he needed ‘non-elective surgery to address a hereditary condition.’”

KUSA: “Randy Udall, the 61-year-old brother of Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., has gone missing in Wyoming after setting off for a backpacking trip on the Wind River Mountains.”

Maggie Haberman wonders what happens if Hillary Clinton doesn’t run.

“The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on Monday asked the Federal Election Commission to treat married gay couples the same as opposite-sex spouses, part of an early push to bring federal statutes in line with the Supreme Court’s decision last week striking down part of the Defense of Marriage Act,” the Washington Post says.

KENTUCKY: Jessica Taylor: “Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes made her bid official on Monday, with the Democrat announcing she’ll challenge Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in 2014.”

Democrats are thrilled with her entry, but this will be a difficult line for her to walk: “Though she’s running in a state where President Obama got just 38 percent of the vote in 2012, she framed this as a choice against McConnell rather than one against the president. ‘This Kentucky woman does not believe that the voters of Kentucky will be fooled that easily. We cannot change who our president is, but we can change who represents us in Washington,’ she said.”

Mitch McConnell said in a statement: “Accepting the invitation from countless Washington liberals to become President Obama’s Kentucky candidate was a courageous decision by Alison Lundergan Grimes and I look forward to a respectful exchange of ideas. The next 16 months will provide a great opportunity for Kentuckians to contrast a liberal agenda that promotes a war on coal families and government-rationed health care with someone who works everyday to protect Kentuckians from those bad ideas.”

Harry Enten looks at the uphill climb for Grimes for three reasons: (1) “McConnell is running when the other party controls the White House,” (2) “McConnell is running in a state where his party did better in the presidential election than it did nationwide,” and (3) “McConnell is running with everything said above and is an incumbent.”

More: “If the president’s approval is below 60%, then it’s very bad news for the incumbent party. None of the 57 Republican or Democratic senatorial candidates who ran in a red or blue state respectively (as measured in the prior presidential election) lost when the other party controlled the White House and the incumbent president had an approval rating below 60%.”

MASSACHUSETTS: “Middlesex County Sheriff Peter J. Koutoujian today launched his bid for the congressional seat set to be vacated by Senator-elect Edward J. Markey,” the Boston Globe writes. “Koutoujian, a Waltham Democrat and former state representative, announced his candidacy for the Fifth Congressional District in a four-minute YouTube video in which he speaks about his family’s immigrant roots and calls public service his ‘life’s work.’” He declares himself a “strong, progressive leader.”

“Two of the five declared Democratic candidates for the congressional seat set to be vacated by Senator-elect Edward J. Markey have proposed a pact that would attempt to limit outside spending in the US House race,” the Boston Globe writes. “State Senator Will Brownsberger and state Representative Carl Sciortino have both called for a ‘People’s Pledge’ in the special election. Sciortino referenced the pledge in his campaign kickoff announcement last week.”

There are a lot of people running for mayor of Boston.