First Read from NBC News – Thursday, 14 November 2013 – The divided Democrats

During the shutdown, Republicans were the ones divided; now it’s the Democrats… Fixing a political problem but undermining the law… White House rips the Band-Aid off by releasing the enrollment numbers… Proof of how a functioning website will fix things: States that have a working website have relatively positive enrollment numbers… Boehner closes the door to immigration reform… And Liz Cheney’s first TV ad.

*** The divided Democrats: We said this repeatedly during the government shutdown: The political party that’s unified is typically winning, while the party that’s divided is losing. And what happened during the shutdown? The united Democrats — who didn’t budge on major changes to President Obama’s health-care law — won that fight, while Republicans — who were divided on the merits of shutting down the government — ended up as the losers. Now the situation has flipped. After a month of bad news regarding the health-care law (the federal website not working well, the cancellation notices for some who get their insurance in the private marketplace, and the low enrollment figures), it’s Democrats who are divided and Republicans who are united. And the Democratic dam is now broken. “Anxious congressional Democrats are threatening to abandon President Obama on a central element of his signature health care law, voicing increasing support for proposals that would allow Americans who are losing their health insurance coverage because of the Affordable Care Act to retain it,” the New York Times writes. The party that is splintering is the party that’s losing. And now the White House has no choice but figure out the least destructive way to allow congressional Democrats to vote on something that keeps the president’s broken promise.

Alan Diaz / AP

President Barack Obama waves as he arrives at Miami International Airport, Friday, Nov. 8, 2013, in Miami.

*** Fixing a political problem but undermining the law: This is the gist of what we’ve heard from congressional Democrats: We need to be on the record — by supporting either the Upton or Landrieu bills — in registering our anger with how the health-care rollout has gone so far. We’ve been with the White House every step of the way, but we’re on the ballot next year, not President Obama. But here’s the problem with both the Upton and Landrieu bills: They actually undermine the law. If Americans are allowed to stay on the their often-substandard health-insurance plans, you’re not getting the young, healthy people needed to make the system work, and that could cause premiums to increase. As the Washington Post’s Ezra Klein says, “Put simply, the Landrieu bill solves one of Obamacare’s political problems at the cost of worsening its most serious policy problem: Adverse selection… Solving a political problem now at the case of worsening a policy problem 10 months from now isn’t a good trade. But they can’t do that unless congressional Democrats are confident that the White House can make the law work.” The politics of the moment are so bad for the president, he may have no choice but to accept this Sophie’s Choice.

*** Ripping off the Band-Aid: Maybe the best way to view the Obama administration’s release of the low enrollment numbers — 26,794 selected plans through the federal exchange, 79,391 through the state-based marketplace, and another nearly 400,000 are deemed eligible for insurance via expanded Medicaid — is ripping off the Band-Aid. The White House is hoping that Nov. 13, 2013 was rock-bottom, and every day going forward is better. We’ll see… One of the White House’s current problems is the negative feedback loop, given all the negative news and coverage of the early rollout. That’s why fixing the website by Nov. 30 is SO critical for the White House: They need some good news to stop the negative feedback loop. The negative feedback loop is something the White House acknowledged yesterday could actually deter folks from signing up… and that’s when a political problem creates yet a new policy problem.

*** Proof how a functioning website will help things: When you look inside the enrollment numbers, however, there is one piece of good news for the administration: The states that do have functioning websites had some relatively good numbers: 35,364 in California, 16,404 in New York, 7,091 in Washington, and 5,586 in Kentucky. Compare that with the mere 2,991 who have selected a plan in Texas. It’s largely true: The states that want the law to work have a better story to tell than the states that don’t want the law to work. The White House is also taking some comfort in the fact there are a million folks in the queue — the folks who have completed applications but haven’t picked a plan.

*** Boehner closes the door on immigration reform: Turning from health care to immigration, House Speaker John Boehner essentially closed the door on major immigration reform happening this year. “House Speaker John Boehner says he will not allow any House-passed immigration legislation to be blended with the Senate’s sweeping reform bill, further quashing the chances of comprehensive immigration reform legislation being signed into law anytime soon,” NBC’s Luke Russert and Carrie Dann reported yesterday. “‘We have no intention of ever going to conference on the Senate bill,’ Boehner told reporters Wednesday.” On MSNBC’s “Daily Rundown,” the No.3 Republican leader, Kevin McCarthy, reiterated the House GOP position that they will NOT go to conference with the Senate on their immigration bill. Instead, they plan to send smaller bills directly to the Senate, but they will NOT vote to go to conference, he says.

*** Liz Cheney’s first TV ad: In Wyoming’s GOP Senate primary, Liz Cheney is up with her first TV ad, and the 60-second bio spot attempts to do two things. One, it emphasizes her Wyoming roots, even though she lived for a while in Northern Virginia. “Our daughter Grace is 13, and we just can’t keep her off a horse. It’s little wonder why — she and her four siblings are fifth-generation Wyomingites,” Cheney says in the ad. And two, it ends with Cheney saying that “it’s time for a new generation of leaders to step up to the plate.” That, of course, is a very subtle way of reminding Wyoming voters that Cheney’s primary opponent, incumbent Sen. Mike Enzi, is 69 years old. The ad comes as pro-Enzi group released a poll to Politico showing Enzi leading Cheney by a whopping 52 points, 69%-17%. But just be wary of all small-state polling, especially in a place like Wyoming. It’s a VERY difficult state to poll.

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*** Thursday’s “The Daily Rundown” line-up: We will have the latest on the health care enrollment numbers and the situation in the Philippines following Typhoon Haiyan. House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) joins Chuck to discuss the House bill on health care that will be discussed on Friday. Plus, Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed on why the Atlanta Braves may not be the Atlanta Braves for long, author and historian Doris Kearns Goodwin will discuss her new book “The Bully Pulpit”, and we’re taking a Deep Dive into the razor thin Virginia Attorney General race with the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman. Also, don’t miss the Data Bank and Chuck’s Thursday takeaway.

*** Thursday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: Guests include New York Magazine’s Meaghan Winter, abortion-rights advocate Dana Weinstein, former Clinton White House Press Secretary Dee Dee Myers, MSNBC.com’s Dafna Linzer, Business Insider’s Josh Barro, Time magazine’s Radhika Jones, and TheGrio’s Zerlina Maxwell.

*** Thursday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts interviews Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), MSNBC Contributor Joy-Ann Reid and MSNBC Contributor Jonathan Capehart on the white house feeling the heat over Obamacare.  RNC Communications Director Sean Spicer joins to discuss whether republicans plan to fix Obamacare or just want to see it fail.  Adrienne Batra was press secretary to Toronto Mayor Rob Ford. She’ll join to discuss his problems with crack, booze and alleged prostitutes.  Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie will join fresh off signing his state’s marriage equality bill into law.  Jimmy Carter’s grandson Jason Carter will join for an exclusive interview on his run for Georgia Governor.  And Thomas will be joined by Miss Universe 2013 Gabriela Isler of Venezuela.

*** Thursday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include NBC’s Luke Russert, former DNC Chair Howard Dean, liberal writer David Sirota, radio host Kurt Andersen, and Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX).

*** Thursday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews Sen. Claire McCaskill, CIA Diversity Director Carmen Middleton, Political consultant Katie Packer Gage, “The Invisible War” Producer Amy Ziering, USA Today’s Susan Page, the Washington Post’s Eugene Robinson and NBC’s Ian Williams.

*** Thursday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews the Washington Post’s Nia-Malika Henderson and Wendell Potter, Whitey Bulger author Kevin Cullen, Michael Smerconish, Joel Rubin, and Larry Hannan of the Florida Times-Union.

The New York Times: “In a closed-door meeting Wednesday of House Democrats and White House officials, tensions flared as several lawmakers upbraided the administration, saying that the president had put Democrats in a tough political position by wrongly promising consumers that they could keep their existing health care plans.” Rep. Mike Doyle of Pennsylvania: “I’m frustrated in how it rolled out, and I let them know in no uncertain terms. The point I was making in caucus to the administration is don’t give us this techno-babble that you’re going to do some administrative fix down the road. There’s a bill being put on the floor on Friday.” He  added, “I think the Upton bill is terrible, but we need something else to vote for in order to keep our word to the American people. We told people in those plans that they were grandfathered in, and if they wanted to stay in them, they could, and we need to honor that.”

John Yarmuth (D-KY) told Buzzfeed: “There’s overwhelming frustration, and I don’t know if I’d call it a rift, but there are a lot of people who feel like they will vote for the Upton bill unless there’s some viable alternative offered by the administration, like tomorrow.” He added, “You have President Obama saying something has to be done, you have President Clinton saying something has to be done, it’s kind of hard for House Democrats, in my opinion, to say we’re not going to avail ourselves of the one option that’s available to us to get it done.”

The bottom line is Democrats don’t like the Upton bill, the insurance industry doesn’t like the bill, but the White House has not endorsed or put forward any alternate. The Times: “With no alternative proposal from the White House as of Wednesday, Democrats were increasingly critical. ‘This has been a complete embarrassment,’ Representative Patrick Murphy, Democrat of Florida, said. ‘It doesn’t matter what party you are. The focus needs to be how do we get this right.’”

Jim Moran (D-VA) told Buzzfeed he’d bet the farm, if he had a farm that the website won’t be working properly by the end of the month: “The frustration is they are setting up deadlines they know they can’t meet. They are not going to meet the Nov. 30 deadline, I would bet anything on that. If I had a farm I’d bet the farm on that.”

Politico calls it “fight or flight” time for Democrats.

Norm Ornstein throws cold water on Republican opposition to the Affordable Care Act, noting that people have been paying for a long time as part of group plans for things they don’t need – like maternity coverage when they’re older or “for all kinds of coverage for ailments that hit those in their 60s but were not at all relevant for me.” That’s not something “new” because of “Obamacare.” He adds, “For every unfortunate story now of an individual losing his or her existing plan—each of whom will get replacement coverage, albeit some with higher costs—there are stories of those who discovered after it was too late that the coverage was not there when they needed it, or was canceled because of a real or imagined preexisting condition. Creating a base of coverage to protect those from disaster, to ensure that basics of insurance routinely made available to those of us in groups are there for those not in groups, is not some horror of big government run rampant but a rational and humane way to create basic national standards.”

And he concludes: “If you think about it, it would be in the interest of conservatives who believe in the magic of markets to make this system work. If it can be demonstrated that real competition in a real marketplace offers good services at lower overall costs, that adds powerful ammunition to the case for free markets. Let’s face it: The unrelenting opposition to all parts of the law, as reflected not just in critiques like Krauthammer’s but also in the more vapid and confused attacks by Sarah Palin and others, is far more about Barack Obama than it is about the structure and nature of the Affordable Care Act.”

AP: “President Barack Obama is taking his economic message to Ohio, using a Cleveland steel plant as the setting to promote his energy efficiency, business attraction and auto industry policies. Obama is also likely to address the status of the health care law after his administration announced that only 26,794 people enrolled for insurance on the trouble-plagued federal website during October. In a bright spot for Obama, Ohio Gov. John Kasich is one of a few Republican governors to take advantage of the law’s Medicaid expansion to reach more low-income Americans. … Obama later will attend a political fundraiser in Philadelphia.”

First Read: Obama administration officials noted on the health-care law conference call, announcing 106,000 sign ups for the Affordable Care Act that they are ahead of the sign-up pace when Massachusetts’ law went live. So what are they referring to? Just 123 people signed up in the first month of the Massachusetts law being available for subsidized plans, which turned out to be 0.3% of the total first-year enrollment. The 106,000 total sign ups for the Affordable Care Act would be 1.5% of the Congressional Budget Office’s projected seven-million figure.

The New York Times has a graphic breaking down how many people signed up state by state.

AP: “President Barack Obama told Native American leaders Wednesday that he will make his first trip as president to Indian Country next year, expanding on his vow to enhance the bond between the federal and tribal governments.”

USA Today: “In signing a bill to help schools battle food allergy attacks, President Obama on revealed a personal reason for his support. ‘Some people may know that Malia actually has a peanut allergy,’ Obama said in a statement Wednesday night. ‘She doesn’t have asthma, but obviously making sure that EpiPens are available in case of emergency in schools is something that every parent can understand.’”

The New York Times: “Janet L. Yellen, President Obama’s choice to lead the Federal Reserve for the next four years, plans to tell senators at her confirmation hearing on Thursday that continuing the Fed’s enormous stimulus campaign is the best way to revive the economy and hasten the program’s end.” More: “Republicans plan to press her on those policies. They view the persistence of slow growth and high unemployment as evidence that the stimulus campaign is having little effect, and they are concerned about potential consequences, including higher inflation and financial instability. Some Democrats, in turn, plan to press Ms. Yellen on financial regulation, seeking assurances the Fed will take stronger measures to rein in big banks.”

USA Today calls the Yellen hearing “Must-see TV for Wall Street.”

AP: “By 221-199, the House approved a measure requiring asbestos trusts that pay damages to current and future asbestos victims to publish detailed quarterly reports with bankruptcy courts. The information must include names of new claimants and how much money the trust has paid out, under the legislation. House Republicans say the bill — backed by the business community and the Chamber of Commerce — would provide oversight to asbestos trusts and ensure funds are available for future victims. Most House Democrats opposed the measure, citing privacy concerns. … The Democratic controlled Senate has no plans to take up the bill and the White House on Tuesday said President Barack Obama would veto it.”

Ruby Cramer: “Jim Messina and John Podesta, top former aides to Barack Obama and Bill Clinton respectively, are currently in talks to co-chair a board backing Hillary Clinton — a plan that, should it come to fruition, would be a dramatic early symbol of party unity behind the former secretary of state. Three sources with knowledge of the plans said Messina, an Obama insider who ran the president’s campaign last year, and Podesta, a longtime advisor to Bill Clinton, are in discussions to join the board of Priorities USA, the multimillion-dollar super PAC that backed President Obama’s reelection effort last year. The men would chair a board of former elected officials and donors who would announce their support for Clinton’s possible White House bid in 2016.”

Buzzfeed: “A tea party group has launched a campaign to support primary challenges against all 87 Republicans who voted for the deal in late October to reopen the government and raise the debt ceiling. The Tea Party Leadership Fund, a PAC affiliated with the group TheTeaParty.net, began a fundraising push — dubbed the “Primaries for Traitors Fund” — shortly after the shutdown deal passed in the House, and they are now ramping up efforts to find ‘credible candidates’ in each of the districts, said the fund’s treasurer, Dan Backer.”

NBC’s Andrew Rafferty notes that Rand Paul credited Sandy funding and “unlimited spending” for Christie getting reelected: “His victory was, in large form, based on that he got a lot of federal money for his state,” Paul told a Philadelphia radio show. “Unlimited spending is sort of, you could call it moderate, or even liberal, to think that there’s an unlimited amount of money, even for good causes.”

It’s pretty ironic for Paul to credit “unlimited spending” for Christie’s reelection and use that as a way to paint him as a moderate given the austerity of Christie’s budget and all the criticism he has received in New Jersey for cutting police officers and being against universal pre-K, dubbing it “babysitting” in the last campaign and defending that again in his reelect.

Where will the action be this 2014 midterm? USA Today: “Arkansas and Michigan will draw the heaviest barrage of political advertising in the 2014 midterm elections, fueled by lots of competitive House races and statewide elections with vulnerable incumbents, according to an analysis by a broadcasters trade association.”

LOUISIANA: Roll Call: ”Willie Robertson, a reality television show celebrity on the popular “Duck Dynasty” series, will star in a new kind of program starting Thursday: a campaign television spot for Louisiana’s 5th District special election. In the advertisement, Robertson proclaims his support for GOP businessman Vance McAllister, the underdog in Saturday’s contest.”

SOUTH DAKOTA: “If he runs at all, former GOP Sen. Larry Pressler’s, R-S.D., bid for Senate as an independent won’t look like your traditional campaign. He said his campaign is running on an ‘Idealistic concept’ in a Wednesday phone interview with CQ Roll Call….Pressler wasn’t even his own first choice to run, but everyone he’s spoken with about it has declined to step forward. Asked if he would be hiring a campaign manager or consulting team, Pressler said no.”

Smart Politics notes that if Pressler wins, he would hold the distinction of being South Dakota’s YOUNGEST elected senator and OLDEST elected senator.

VIRGINIA: “Leading by 164 votes of 2.2 million in the Virginia attorney general’s race after a week of counting, Democrat Mark Herring, a four-term state senator, named a transition team Wednesday,” USA Today notes. “So did his opponent, Republican state Sen. Mark Obenshain. Obenshain said in a news conference Wednesday it is ‘premature’ to consider requesting a recount. ‘With a historically narrow margin, and the vote tally yet to be completed, the responsible thing to do is to prepare for a potential transition.’”

WYOMING: A poll from a group that has been running ads against Liz Cheney has incumbent Sen. Mike Enzi (R) up 52 points (!!!) over her.

Cheney, meanwhile, has released her first television ad, a 60-second spot that touts her Wyoming roots