First Thoughts: On the ropes?
Wednesday, 10 July 2013 06:11:44 PDT
On the ropes? It’s been a bad week if you’re an immigration-reform supporter… This comes as Boehner huddles with House Republicans to discuss how to proceed on immigration… Will GOP supporters strike back? Bush is set to deliver immigration speech today, but will that help GOP reformers or hurt them?… Obama meets with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus at 11:00 am ET to discuss immigration reform… Ex-Obama staffers join Ready for Hillary effort… Rand Paul and the issue of race… Bob McDonnell has seen his political career turn upside down… How does this impact Cuccinelli?… And Jessica Taylor’s Top 5 races of 2013.
*** On the ropes? This has been a bad week if you’re a supporter of comprehensive immigration reform. As Speaker John Boehner today huddles with his conference on how to proceed on immigration, it’s clear that the GOP-led House isn’t close to coming up with an immigration bill — at least one that could go to conference. Yesterday’s joint Bill Kristol-Rich Lowry op-ed signaled that part of the Republican establishment is now against reform. And conservatives are now creating new excuses (like the rocky implementation of the health-care law) to oppose immigration reform. So there are two ways to view the status of immigration reform after the Senate passed its bipartisan legislation. One, it’s dying a slow death in the House, as Politico notes, because most House Republicans just don’t have an incentive to pass it. Two, this is just going to be a long process with lots of ups and downs, and House Republicans won’t budge until very late in the year when finally budging becomes their best card to play. But even immigration supporters have to admit that they probably didn’t think they’d be in the position of trying to make House Republicans have to budge late in the year.
*** Will GOP supporters strike back? Given the growing conservative opposition to immigration reform, here’s a question worth asking: Can pro-reform Republicans strike back? Today from his presidential library in Dallas, TX, George W. Bush will be delivering a speech on immigration. But is this going to help convince conservatives or make them even more resistant? Remember, the modern conservative movement hasn’t been too friendly to Bush’s policies or presidential agenda. The GOP-leaning American Action Network is up with a $100,000-plus national TV ad campaign, urging Republicans to support the Senate’s immigration reform bill. But is $100,000-plus enough? And GOP immigration supporters have released a poll showing that Republican primary voters want to fix the immigration system and prefer an imperfect solution to no solution. But is releasing a poll going to do the trick? Right now, the Republicans who want immigration reform to pass have been VERY QUIET lately. Does that change?
*** Obama meets with Congressional Hispanic Caucus to discuss immigration: For the White House’s part, President Obama and Vice President Biden meet with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus at 11:00 am ET to discuss immigration reform. Also, the White House today has released a report highlighting what it says are the economic benefits to achieving immigration reform. The report says these benefits are: 1) growing GDP, 2) fostering innovation, 3) increasing worker productivity, and 4) reducing the budget deficit.
*** Ex-Obama staffers join Ready for Hillary effort: Much was made when Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) announced she was supporting Ready for Hillary, the group promoting a presidential bid by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. But today’s announcement might be a bit more significant: A firm run by members of Obama’s vaunted campaign team is now partnering with this pro-Hillary effort. Per a press release, the firm 270 Strategies — headed by Mitch Stewart and Jeremy Bird, the Obama campaign’s top field aides — has joined up with Ready for Hillary, an additional sign that Obama World is embracing a potential Clinton candidacy in 2016. Once again, we’ll point out that Ready for Hillary has no formal ties to Clinton or her top advisers. And also note that this isn’t akin to David Plouffe or David Axelrod getting aboard the Ready for Hillary train. We also have this question: Does creating an aura of inevitability help Hillary for 2016? Remember, it didn’t work out in 2008…
*** Rand Paul and the issue of race: In other 2016 news, the conservative Free Beacon raised eyebrows with a piece noting that Sen. Rand Paul’s (R-KY) social media director, Jack Hunter, “spent years working as a pro-secessionist radio pundit and neo-Confederate activist, raising questions about whether Paul will be able to transcend the same fringe-figure associations that dogged his father’s political career.” More from the piece: “In one 2004 commentary, Hunter said Lincoln assassin John Wilkes Booth’s heart was ‘in the right place.’ ‘Although Lincoln’s assassin, John Wilkes Booth’s heart was in the right place, the Southern Avenger does regret that Lincoln’s murder automatically turned him into a martyr,’ he said in 2004… He also compared Lincoln to Saddam Hussein and suggested that the 16th president would have had a romantic relationship with Adolf Hitler if the two met.” Normally a staffer’s past statements wouldn’t merit much news, but it’s a reminder that the issue of race could potentially dog a Rand Paul 2016 candidacy — much like it did for his father after the revelations of racially tinged newsletters he once published under his name. This is why you’re probably going to see Rand Paul go out of his way to court African Americans during any presidential bid (like his stop at Howard University in April).
*** What About Bob? Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell — a one-time rising GOP star, Romney VP possibility, and potential 2016 presidential candidate — has seen his political career turn upside down. Here’s the likely coup de grace via the Washington Post: “A prominent political donor gave $70,000 to a corporation owned by Virginia Gov. Robert F. McDonnell and his sister last year, and the governor did not disclose the money as a gift or loan, according to people with knowledge of the payments. The donor, wealthy businessman Jonnie R. Williams Sr., also gave a previously unknown $50,000 check to the governor’s wife, Maureen, in 2011, the people said. The money to the corporation and Maureen McDonnell brings to $145,000 the amount Williams gave to assist the McDonnell family in 2011 and 2012 — funds that are now at the center of federal and state investigations.” In Washington, so much was made about the scandal/controversies hitting the Obama administration. But the real political scandal has taken place right next door. Technically, McDonnell might not have broken any laws — which exempt disclosing gifts to spouses and family — but this is politically toxic because he certainly didn’t seem to follow the spirit of the law. Remember, Virginia has some of the weakest campaign-finance and ethics laws in the country.
*** And how will the news impact Ken? The question now becomes whether McDonnell’s fall from grace hurts gubernatorial nominee Ken Cuccinelli, who Democrats point out also has close ties to Jonnie Williams (including accepting gifts from him). The Cuccinelli campaign responds that Cucinelli’s AG office initiated this investigation, and they don’t believe McAuliffe will be a credible messenger to attack them on this issue. But it’s hard to see how this doesn’t hurt Cuccinelli, because he needs to court moderates and the GOP business community, and right now McDonnell looks to be toxic to help him with those groups. Meanwhile, the Cuccinelli campaign is hitting Democratic gubernatorial nominee Terry McAuliffe for campaigning today with Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. “Gov. O’Malley signed the largest tax increase in Maryland history and earned a ‘D’ rating for supporting increased spending and higher taxes. He supports the war on coal, Obamacare, and even forced non-union teachers to pay union fees,” the Cuccinelli campaign says in a release.
*** The Top 5 races of 2013: Finally, don’t miss Jessica’s Taylor look at the Top 5 political races of 2013. At the top of the list – the Cuccinelli-McAuliffe race in Virginia.
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Programming notes
Wednesday, 10 July 2013 06:09:49 PDT
*** Wednesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews Texas State Sen. Wendy Davis, Rep. Chris Van Hollen, NBC’s Ayman Mohyeldin, the Atlantic’s Jeffrey, the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza with the Politics Fix, and NYU Professor and New Yorker columnnist Jilani Cobb.
*** Wednesday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: The show will carry the Zimmerman trial live and feature discussions with MSNBC Legal analyst Lisa Bloom, Criminal Defense Attorney John Burris, and MSNBC’s Craig Melvin.
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Rare Bush policy foray on immigration may fall on deaf GOP ears
Wednesday, 10 July 2013 00:42:58 PDT
George W. Bush will make a rare post-presidential foray into politics on Wednesday when he delivers a speech about immigration, thrusting himself into a contentious internal policy debate which has split the Republican Party he once led.

Former President George W. Bush, left, stands during the national anthem with his wife Laura Bush before a baseball game between the Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers Saturday, June 1, 2013, in Arlington, Texas.
GOP lawmakers are already sending signals that his thoughts won’t sway them but immigration reform is one of the great unfinished items of Bush’s presidency. His words on the matter are all the more noteworthy considering how hesitant he has been to delve into politics since leaving office, preferring instead to pursue other activities, such as charity work and his new painting hobby.
But his absence from the public stage has been more than self-imposed. Republicans have often turned their backs on his two-term presidency since he left office highly unpopular in most polls. The former president has not been a staple on the campaign trail as many former presidents have been, and he was kept so far away from the 2012 campaign that his brother, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, was left to defend his record and legacy at last year’s Republican convention.
Largely because of that history, Bush’s sentiments don’t appear to matter much to many House Republicans, who now control the fate of comprehensive immigration reform and will huddle behind closed doors to plot their path forward on the issue the same day Bush speaks at a naturalization ceremony at his presidential library in Texas. They’ve already signaled that Bush won’t have much impact on their deliberations of a bipartisan bill passed by the Senate last month.
It’s unclear precisely what Bush will say in his remarks but in a recent interview he reiterated his view that it is “very important to fix a broken system, to treat people with respect and have confidence in our capacity to assimilate people.”
Rep. Tim Griffin, an Arkansas Republican who served as a political aide in the Bush White House, flatly said “no” when asked whether his former boss’s words would weigh on his or other Republicans’ thinking on immigration.
Archive Video: Speaking about immigration reform during his 2007 State of the Union address, President Bush says, “We should establish a legal and orderly path for foreign workers to enter our country to work on a temporary basis.”
“We represent our constituents. I think he’s a great man, and I respect him greatly,” Griffin said. “But I’ve got 85 to 95 percent of constituents’ calls to my office against the Senate bill every week.”
The battle over comprehensive immigration reform into which Bush is wading is just the latest and broadest example of the internal battle over the trajectory of the GOP. It’s a fight pitting dogged, grassroots conservatives against establishment Republicans who worry that itinerant conservatism will irreparably harm the party – in this case, with the increasingly influential bloc of Hispanic voters.
Bush’s remarks during a naturalization ceremony at his presidential library could ostensibly break through that rift.
A number of Republicans in Congress have come to Washington in the elections since Bush left office, and the party’s identity is more tied into opposing President Barack Obama than celebrating the legacy of Obama’s predecessor. But the fight over comprehensive immigration reform during the Bush administration in many ways presaged the GOP’s struggles with Hispanic voters since conservatives drove the Republican president’s immigration proposals into the ground in 2007.
Republican proponents of comprehensive immigration reform argue that conservatives would be well-served to tune into Bush’s remarks on Wednesday.
“I think it’s a reminder that he, a Republican president, tried so hard to get immigration done and it is unfinished business for him,” Ana Navarro, a prominent Republican advocate of immigration reform, said of Bush’s speech. “And I suspect that it won’t be lost on some of the bigger thinkers in the GOP that the guy giving the speech was the last Republican to win the presidency and did it with 44 percent of the Hispanic vote.” (An NBC News analysis determined that Bush won 40 percent of the Latino vote in the 2004 election, still up considerably from John McCain’s 31 percent in 2008 and Mitt Romney’s 27 percent in 2012.)
“No, he’s not going to sway Steve King,” she added, referring to the hardline Iowa conservative congressman. “But yes, his voice will make a difference to some and it’s the right thing for him to do.”
Bush’s counsel for Republicans in his ABC interview was understated. “Good policy yields good politics, as far as I’m concerned,” the former president said.
Not that Bush’s endorsement of the Senate immigration reform law, which passed last month with bipartisan support, would necessarily make a difference.
“I’ll take the hypothetical. If he were to come out for the Senate bill, in all due respect, I would say he’s wrong,” said Griffin.

President Barack Obama and former President George W. Bush arrive on July 2, 2013 for a wreath-laying ceremony for the victims of the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombing at the Bombing Memorial in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania.
It doesn’t help that Bush’s cachet among conservatives had steadily eroded over the course of his second term. Mike Needham, the head of the conservative Heritage Action for America (which opposes the Senate-passed immigration reform proposal), said that after mounting government spending and Bush’s failed Supreme Court nomination of Harriet Miers, “the immigration bill did nothing to enamor the base to President Bush.”
“I think there’s a strong sense among the conservative base that fundamentally the deck is stacked against people across the country and in favor of special interests,” he said.
And to the extent that Bush’s arguments threaten to fall largely upon deaf ears, it reflects the drastic shifts in the GOP over the course of just a few years. The balance of power now favors groups like Heritage Action rather than one of the two surviving former Republican presidents.
“Fundamentally, where the Republican establishment misses the boat is that people just don’t trust Washington,” Needham said.
Related:
- Slideshow: The legacy of George W. Bush
- After Senate immigration marathon, House signals narrow path
- GOP wrestles with immigration reform consequences
This story was originally published on Wed Jul 10, 2013 3:42 AM EDT
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Former top Obama aides join pro-Hillary effort
Tuesday, 09 July 2013 20:59:48 PDT

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton laughs with her husband, former President Bill Clinton, at the Clinton Global Initiative America meeting in Chicago, June 13, 2013.
Former senior aides to President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign have signed onto a prominent super PAC dedicated to helping promote Hillary Clinton for president in 2016.
Ready for Hillary announced Wednesday that it had partnered with 270 Strategies, an upstart Democratic grassroots consulting firm headed by two highly respected organizers of the 2012 Obama campaign. An important part of the team credited with running the on-the-ground machine that helped the president to win a second term will now be part of the growing effort to advance the former secretary of state’s prospective candidacy in 2016. The announcement underscores the extent to which many Democrats and the Obama political universe have pivoted toward embracing a Clinton bid for the White House in 2016.

Jeremy Bird, Obama’s former national field director, leads a meeting with his tech-savvy staff in 2009.
270 Strategies will be charged with building grassroots organizing for the pro-Clinton group. The firm will handle field organizing, volunteer recruitment and training and constituency engagement programs, according to the release.
The firm was formed earlier this year by Jeremy Bird, Obama’s former national field director, and Mitch Stewart, the former battleground states director for the president’s re-election campaign.
“There is no one that better understands grassroots presidential politics than the team that won the last two presidential elections,” said Craig T. Smith, a senior adviser to Ready for Hillary. “Already, hundreds of thousands of Americans are joining Ready for Hillary’s national movement and urging Hillary to run. The professionals at 270 Strategies will help us expand and mobilize that effort in all corners of the country.”
The announcement helps lend cachet to Ready for Hillary, which has sought to spearhead the effort to build support for Clinton in 2016 and build up the kind of infrastructure that could be quickly adapted to support her candidacy, should she decide to run.
The group has attracted the assistance of other top Democratic strategists, and helped collect endorsements for Clinton, like Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill’s last month.
Time’s Mark Halperin breaks news that Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., along with a new superPAC, Ready for Hillary, will announce their support for Hillary Clinton for president in 2016.
“We know from years of leading the Obama organization that empowering people and engaging grassroots volunteers are the most critical components of building a winning, 21st century campaign,” Bird said in the release.
“That’s why we’re pleased to be working with the Ready for Hillary team to help tap into the organic grassroots energy we’re seeing around the country from voters of all ages who are already inspired by the notion of a potential Clinton candidacy.”
Thursday’s announcement underscores the growing overlap between the Obama and Clinton universe, a political alliance that had once seemed unthinkable during the bitter primary battle between Obama and Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008.
But after having served as Obama’s top diplomat, Clinton has emerged — for now — as Democrats’ tentative favorite to carry the party’s banner in the 2016 elections.
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Presidential proclamation of affinity for broccoli sparks hashtag hoopla
Tuesday, 09 July 2013 14:03:48 PDT
First lady Michelle Obama hosts young people from across the country Tuesday at the White House for the Kids State Dinner.
It’s July in Washington, and people are arguing about broccoli.
The vegetable melee began when President Barack Obama was asked by pint-sized kid journalists at a White House event exactly the kind of question that captivates Americans of a young age encountering the Leader of the Free World for the first time.
“What,” the hard-nosed student scribes inquired, according to a White House pool report, “is your favorite food?”
Obama responded “broccoli” – presumably influenced in part by the event’s theme, a meal celebrating the young winners of the second annual “Healthy Lunchtime Challenge.”
Ah, the edible green cousin of cauliflower that launched a thousand tweets.
Within hours, “broccoli” was a trending term on Twitter for the city of Washington, D.C., as social media types debated the virtues of a politico’s professed adoration of brassica oleracea italica.
There were accusations of flip-flopping. (In response to a similar question last year, Obama indicated in an interview with Oprah that “pizza nights around the White House are pretty great.” Scholastic Inc. cited his love for “chili, french fries, and pork chops” during last year’s campaign.)
There was the obvious dissonance with the Bush culinary legacy. (George H.W. Bush so despised the veggie that he famously banned the leafy green aboard Air Force One.)
And there were digs aplenty about Obama’s past kind words for arugula (the latest Whole Foods pricing of which was not available at press time.)
With the city slogging through another of its famous stifling summers, accompanied by infamous news vacuums — it’s sure not to be the last petty argument of the week or maybe even of the day.
But for now, it’s at least Washington’s most literal food fight.

A boy takes a picture of President Obama at the second annual “Kids’ State Dinner.”
This story was originally published on Tue Jul 9, 2013 5:03 PM EDT
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More from First Read:
- After Senate immigration marathon, House signals narrow path
- First Thoughts: Welcome to the perpetual campaign
- Obama agenda: Frustration, bumps, and glitches
- Congress: Suspend aid to Egypt?
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