First Read from NBC News – Perception vs. reality – Wednesday, 03 July 2013

Health-care law delay is a perception problem for the White House… But the reality is a more nuanced story… A scary situation in Egypt… Looking ahead to next week… And Happy 4^th of July!

*** Perception vs. reality: Implementing the health-care law — given its complexity and sheer magnitude — was never going to be an easy task, especially with a political opposition ready to pounce on any problem, major or minor. And yesterday’s surprise announcement that the Obama administration was postponing the large employer penalty (and thus employer mandate) produced a political tremor in Washington. But it’s important to distinguish the perception here versus the reality. As a matter of perception, yesterday’s news was a big problem for the White House. The timing was suspicious; it was announced while President Obama was on Air Force One coming back from Africa and right before the July 4 holiday, making it seem like the administration wanted to bury the news. The development enabled every Republican politician to blast out press releases describing the health-care law as a disaster. “This is a clear acknowledgment that the law is unworkable, and it underscores the need to repeal the law and replace it with effective, patient-centered reforms,” House Speaker John Boehner said in a statement. And the announcement of the delay only furthered the impression that the health-care law’s implementation is going to be rocky, producing rough headlines for Democrats over the next year (which just happens to be an election year). When it comes to politics, perception matters — a lot. And the perception could give political foes the idea they have a chance at stopping the law, which in turn could lead to less cooperation. That’s what the White House has to fear.

Jonathan Ernst / Reuters

Healthcare law supporters rally on the sidewalk outside ongoing legal arguments over the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act at the Supreme Court in Washington March 26, 2012.

*** A perception problem vs. a nuanced reality: But the reality of yesterday’s announcement is a bit different from the perception. For one thing, it doesn’t impact the main parts of the health-care law — the individual mandate (i.e., the requirement that every American have health insurance) and the exchanges (where uninsured individuals can purchase plans). Those parts aren’t being delayed. Second, the number of employers affected (those who employ 50 or more full-time workers) is relatively small, given that most large employers already provide health insurance to their employees. And third, employers and business groups hailed the decision. The one-year delay was created to simplify business’ reporting process to the Treasury Department and IRS. “This one year delay will provide employers and businesses more time to update their health care coverage without threat of arbitrary punishment,” Neil Trautwein of the National Retail Federation said in a statement, per the Washington Post. “We appreciate the Administration’s recognition of employer concerns and hope it will allow for greater flexibility in the future.” Bottom line: The announcement yesterday was a P.R. black eye for the White House, but the reality is a much more nuanced story.

*** A scary situation in Egypt: Yet here’s a story with very little nuance: Egypt. “As Egypt edged closer on Wednesday to a return to rule by the generals, with a military deadline only hours away for President Mohamed Morsi to cede power, the Egyptian leader and army commanders pledged to spill their blood to achieve their aims, propelling the crisis further toward a showdown,” the New York Times writes. “‘We swear to God that we will sacrifice even our blood for Egypt and its people, to defend them against any terrorist, radical or fool,’ the armed forces said on a military-affiliated Facebook page in a posting titled ‘Final hours.’ It was published shortly after Mr. Morsi delivered an angry, impassioned speech pledging to uphold the legitimacy of the elections that brought him to power last year.” Per NBC’s Charlene Gubash in Cairo, the Egyptian military is supposed to issue a statement at 10:30 am ET.

*** Looking ahead to next week: Finally, we’ll be off Thursday and Friday to celebrate the long July 4^th weekend, but we’ll update the blog as news warrants. Here’s a timeline of the stories we’ll be watching for next week. Have a Happy 4^th!

Monday, July 8: Rick Perry to announce his political plans in San Antonio.
Tuesday, July 9: A possible vote on the anti-abortion legislation in Texas.
Wednesday, July 10: George W. Bush expected to make remarks at his library on immigration during an event called, “What Immigrants Contribute.”
Wednesday, July 10: House Republicans meet to discuss immigration reform in a closed-door meeting in the Capitol

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*** Wednesday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Guests include Business Insider’s Josh Barro, former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, MSNBC analyst Jonathan Alter, and Politico’s Anna Palmer.

*** Wednesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: Craig Melvin, anchoring from Sanford, FL, interviews MSNBC Legal analyst Lisa Bloom, USA Today’s Susan Page and Yamiche Alcindor, NBC’s Pete Williams and Ayman Mohyeldin, and New Yorker contributor Jelani Cobb.

Quote of the day? “This will be a historic day for ex-gays across the country as we unite on Capitol Hill to lobby Congress to recognize former homosexuals,” Christopher Doyle, co-founder and president of Voice of the Voiceless, said in a press release. “Now that former homosexuals are a protected class against discrimination in Washington, D.C., this opens up the door for our unique stories to be heard and achievements recognized as we celebrate the First Annual Ex-Gay Pride Month!”

This is a Family Research Council group launching “Ex-Gay Pride Month,” and will hold a dinner in D.C. and are enlisting Reps. Michele Bachmann and Tim Huelskamp as well as Jim DeMint.

Ron, you’re so money, baby… Vince Vaughn and Ron Paul were hanging out at Paul’s house eating some barbecue in Texas.

ILLINOIS: New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg endorsed Bill Daley for Illinois governor.

IOWA: The Des Moines Register: “The removal from duty of a prominent Iowa Division of Criminal Investigation agent came five days after he encouraged Iowa State Patrol troopers to pull over a speeding vehicle that, it turns out, contained Gov. Terry Branstad, records obtained by The Des Moines Register show.” The officer said the driver, Branstad, was doing a “hard 90.”

NEW JERSEY: “Still not committing to a date for a vote, Senate Democratic leaders converged in the hometown of the Senate minority leader to pressure Republicans to override Gov. Chris Christie’s veto of same-sex marriage and to urge the governor to permit it to happen,” the Asbury Park Press reports.

The New York Times was there, too: “State Democratic lawmakers on Tuesday sought to put Gov. Chris Christie on the defensive for his opposition to same-sex marriage, saying he is standing in the way of history after last week’s Supreme Court decisions acknowledging the equal rights of gays and lesbians. Standing outside the home here of a lesbian couple who has lived together and raised a family for 30 years, Democratic leaders said they would push to override the Republican governor’s veto of a same-sex marriage bill the Legislature passed last year.”

NEW YORK: “New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Tuesday created a powerful commission to investigate political corruption in Albany — giving it special powers to broaden its reach and some high-profile advisers to expand its credibility,” the New York Daily News writes. “He named NYPD Commissioner Raymond Kelly and former Manhattan District Attorney Robert Morgenthau to serve on a special four-member panel to advise the investigation.”

Said Cuomo: “This is a very powerful step that this state government is taking. People of this state should sleep better tonight knowing that there is a mechanism in place to make sure their government is not only competent but is also meeting the highest ethical and legal standards.”

Bad day of press for Christine Quinn: “City Council Speaker Christine Quinn doled out hundreds of thousands of dollars in taxpayer funds from the just-passed city budget to nonprofit groups whose board members and executives have given money to her mayoral campaign. The Daily News examined the two dozen organizations that received the biggest grants from Quinn and found that 14 had ties to contributors who gave or raised a total of more than $210,000 in support of Quinn’s candidacy.”

And this: “Launching her harshest attacks yet in the mayoral race, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn on Tuesday slammed rivals Bill de Blasio as ‘desperate’ and Bill Thompson as ‘asleep at the switch’ Tuesday night.”

But this was good news for Quinn, who championed this measure: “In a setback for Mayor Bloomberg, a federal judge in Manhattan on Tuesday tossed a city lawsuit against a City Council bill that would boost salaries for thousands of low-paid workers. The judge found the city had no legal right to stop the measure, known as the ‘living wage’ bill, because it couldn’t prove it ‘suffered a concrete and particularized injury’ by enforcing the law. The bill, passed in 2012, requires any company that has received over $1 million in tax breaks or financing to pay workers $10 an hour with benefits, or $11.50 without.”

On Bill Thompson: “She laid into Thompson over another Daily News report that he failed to intervene as the cost of a $73 million contract to streamline the timekeeping system for city workers – a project known as CityTime – soared ten-fold. … Thompson conceded that he should have done more about CityTime, but insisted there were plenty of people – singling out the City Council speaker – who also failed to act. The Council did hold oversight hearings on the system, whereas Thompson did not conduct an audit.”

Ray Kelly has an op-ed in the New York Daily News defending stop and frisk.

NORTH CAROLINA: “A bill restricting abortions that popped up in the state Senate without public notice Tuesday evening and received swift approval would force clinics to meet expensive license requirements and make it more difficult for doctors to perform the procedures,” the Raleigh News and Observer reports. (H/T: Political Wire.)

TEXAS: “Democrats and Republicans sparred over far-reaching legislation to restrict abortions in Texas as a GOP-dominated House committee approved the bill early Wednesday and sent it to the full chamber to take up early next week,” the Dallas Morning News reports. “After hearing testimony from some of the 2,300 who had signed up to testify on the bill, the House State Affairs Committee approved the measure 8-3, with two absences. It was the first public hearing on the abortion bill in the current special session, which began Monday and was called after a Democratic filibuster killed an identical measure during another special session in June.”

Texas Gov. Rick Perry will make an announcement about his political future on Monday, a source close to the Republican governor confirms to NBC News.

In an email to “friends,” Perry confidantes are invited to a Monday announcement in San Antonio concerning the governor’s “exciting future plans.”

Perry has long played the decision of whether he will run for another gubernatorial term close to the vest.

He had previously said he would announce his plans for 2014 this week, but that timetable was moved back after he called a special session of the Texas state legislature to address the abortion-rights fight catapulted into national news by Wendy Davis’s filibuster.

The outspoken conservative governor hinted to reporters in New York last month that he might also be considering another run for the presidency –  after his previous attempt was marred by his notorious “oops” moment in a CNBC debate in Michigan in 2011.

“Later in the year, if there’s more expansive plans than that we’ll announce at the appropriate time,” he said.

The email was first reported by CNN.

The full text of the email is below.

*** Howdy Friends,

Please save the date of July 8th, 2013

Governor Rick Perry

Aggie, the longest serving Governor of the great state of Texas and friend,

will be making an announcement around mid day in San Antonio concerning his exciting future plans!

Please join his family and closest friends on July 8th

details to follow

With the immigration debate now moving over the Republican-led House of Representatives, MSNBC.com’s Benjy Sarlin writes how some conservatives believe that wooing Latino voters is less important than improving on their performance with white voters.

On election night, Fox News anchor Brit Hume called the “demographic” threat posed by Latino voters “absolutely real” and suggested Mitt Romney’s “hardline position on immigration” may be to blame for election losses. On Monday, Hume declared that argument “baloney.” The Hispanic vote, he said, “is not nearly as important, still, as the white vote.”

Sean Hannity, a reliable bellwether on the right, has been on a similar journey since the fall. He announced the day after President Obama’s re-election that he had “evolved” on immigration reform and now supported a “path to citizenship” in order to improve relations with Hispanic voters. Hannity has now flipped hard against the Senate’s bill.

“Not only do I doubt the current legislation will solve the immigration problem,” he wrote in a June column, “but it also won’t help the GOP in future elections.”

Hannity and Hume didn’t arrive at their latest destination by accident. They’re just the latest figures on the right to embrace the compelling new message that’s whipping Republicans against immigration reform while still promising a better tomorrow for the GOP’s presidential candidates.

It’s uncertain if Republicans supporting immigration reform will result in more Latinos who vote Republican in presidential contest, but this is pretty clear: White voters are only declining as a share of the electorate.

Consider: In 2000, whites made up more than 80% of all voters, according to the exit polls. In 2004, that share dropped to 77%. In 2008, it declined to 74%. And in 2012, white voters made up 72% of the electorate. At that current pace and because of demographic trends, you could expect — though it’s not a sure thing — that the white percentage could drop to 70% by 2016 and 68% by 2020.

Also consider: President Obama won just 39% of the white vote in 2012, which was the worst performance for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1984. But Obama carried more than 80% of the non-white vote, which gave him his 51%-47% popular-vote win over Mitt Romney.

So extrapolate that out to 2016 and 2020, given the demographic trends showing that the country is on pace to be a majority-minority nation 30 years from now. In 2016, a future Democratic presidential candidate — say Hillary Clinton? — who gets 40% of the white vote and 80% of the non-white vote could win 52% of the popular vote. In 2020, that overall percentage would jump up to nearly 53%.

Now it’s important to acknowledge the difference between presidential elections (where there’s greater minority participation) and midterm elections (where there’s less). It’s also important to state that it’s impossible to predict who, exactly, will turn out in an election. Indeed, RealClearPolitics’ Sean Trende has cautioned that it’s very possible that future Democratic presidential candidates don’t get 80% of the non-white vote, especially when the nation’s first African-American president no longer remains on the top of the ticket. And that’s probably a good assumption.

But here’s the power of changing demographics: In 2004, John Kerry won 41% of the white vote and about 71% of the non-white vote, giving him 48% of the overall popular vote. But come 2016, if the white share is at 70% and non-white at 30%, then Kerry’s ’04 performance gets to you to 50% of the popular vote.

Let that sink in — Kerry goes from a losing 48% to a possibly winning 50%.

So while it’s debatable if the Republican Party can benefit from supporting the immigration legislation, it isn’t debatable that the white portion of the electorate is getting smaller — and that has consequences for future elections.